Heatwave 'to kill nearly 600 people' across England and Wales, experts warn

Researchers fear nearly 600 people could die in England and Wales as temperatures heat up this week.

The last few days have seen Brits hit withsweltering heat blasts reaching well above the average for the time of year, with the southeast blasted with 31C on Thursday and a blistering 32Cexpected in the area on Saturday. The rest of the nation will see similar but not quite as unbearable extremes between 18C and 28C, with no sign of rainuntil the following week

Specialists from both the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College London have warned the extreme heat could reuslt in excess mortality amid searing heats between Thursday and Sunday.

Their study, which drew upon historical UK data, anticipates approximately 570 deaths due to the sweltering conditions spanning over those four days. The projected peak of excess deaths is expected to hit 266 on Saturday, correlating with the fiercest heat.

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Specifically, London faces the possibility of the highest excess death toll, with 129 anticipated cases. According to the researchers, their examination underscores the increasingly perilous nature of extreme heat on public health within the UK.

This comes on the heels of a World Weather Attribution (WWA) group analysis made public on Friday, revealing the heatwave's likelihood and intensity has risen substantially, attributed to climate change by estimates of 100 times likelihood and an increase of 2-4C in temperature.

Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, Grantham Institute lecturer at Imperial College London, underscored: "Heatwaves are silent killers – people who lose their lives in them typically have pre-existing health conditions and rarely have heat listed as a contributing cause of death."

He emphasised the urgency of awareness, stating that "This real-time analysis reveals the hidden toll of heatwaves and we want it to help raise the alarm." He warned: "Heatwaves are an underappreciated threat in the UK and they're becoming more dangerous with climate change."

Dr Konstantinoudis has urged the public to heed heat-health warnings this weekend and to keep a watchful eye on the elderly, particularly those who are living by themselves. With predictions of temperatures soaring to 32C in the South East on Saturday, London already felt the sweltering touch hitting the forecasted highs on Thursday.

The team of experts analysed data sourced from existing research assessing the connection between thermal extremes and day-to-day mortality rates for any reason across 34,753 locales in England and Wales. Merging this data with precise weather projections courtesy of Copernicus' climate service, they offered an estimate for the imminent heat-related fatalities.

Their calculations indicate that there could have been 114 additional deaths on Thursday, 152 on Friday, ramping up to 266 on Saturday, and subsiding to 37 on Sunday as the mercury dips to less temperamental mid-20s.

Predictions highlight those over 65 as being the most vulnerable, estimating 488 excess deaths within this demographic, according to the report. However, experts remind us that rising temperatures pose risks to life across all age brackets, with an estimated 82 younger individuals potentially succumbing to the heat.

Furthermore, they caution that this scrutiny might underestimate the impact, given it overlooks how early-season heatwaves can catch populations off guard before they acclimatise to heightened temperatures.

The UK Climate Change Committee has published a startling report, estimating that if the temperature soars by 2C due to unabated fossil fuel combustion, heat-related deaths could skyrocket to over 10,000 annually by 2050.

This week, United Nations experts have sounded the alarm bells, declaring that we're at a do-or-die moment to curb rising temperatures, with only a three-year window to thwart global temps from breaching the critical 1.5C mark.

Professor Antonio Gasparrini from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) weighed in on the subject: "Increases of just a degree or two can be the difference between life and death." He outlined the sobering ripple effects: "Every fraction of a degree of warming will cause more hospital admissions and heat deaths, putting more strain on the NHS."

Assistant Professor Dr Malcolm Mistry, also from LSHTM, highlighted even warm temperatures we might brush off as harmless could actually spell disaster: "Exposure to temperatures in the high 20s or low 30s may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, particularly for people aged over 65, infants, pregnant people and those with pre-existing health conditions."

He sent out a dire warning: "Unless effective mitigation and adaptive measures are put in place in the coming years, the risk of large heat-related death events is set to increase in the UK – we have a large ageing population and warming is expected to increase to 2C by 2050 and as high as 3C this century."

Speaking from experience, Dr Lorna Powell, an NHS urgent care doctor based in east London who was not linked to the research, reported: "We are seeing cases of heat-related illnesses rising in our urgent care departments." She indicated the swift progression of such ailments: "Heat exhaustion can quickly trigger more serious illnesses as dehydration sets in and the cardiovascular system becomes overwhelmed."